"Want Linux on your desktop? Nine reasons to forget about it"

I thought this was an odd headline, considering that Linux has been my sole desktop for 3 years now (and I was currently looking at it from a Linux desktop). The article was an apparent attempt by David Coursey- Executive Editor, AnchorDesk- to explain that Linux would "never" be used as a Desktop OS. In fact, he attempts to liken himself, albeit lightly, to Martin Luther. I find this odd, since Martin Luther stood up against the establishment to say "This is wrong and here is a lot of data to back me up". Mr. Coursey, on the other hand makes nine statements, which I think have no data to back them up. In fact, most of them have no application to his argument. Let's take a look at his "reformation thinking".

Point One

1. Linux will never become common as a desktop operating system, and no amount of believing will change that. It only makes adherents look stupid. Why? Because Linux is too complex, and there isn't enough money to make it worth someone's time to build a really great environment for desktop applications; then, software companies would need to build applications, but how large a market is there? Yes, chicken-and-egg, but that stops many things, not just desktop Linux.

Of course, he could base his opinion on solid fact. However, solid fact is conspicuous here, only in the extreme way in which it is absent. Statements like "Linux is too complex" are not fact, but opinion. His comments about software companies completely miss the entire Open Source and Free Software movements. I don't believe that I use a single application that is built by a company. How is commercial involvement a pre-requisite for desktop success?

Point Two

2. If client-side Java had lived up to the promise of "write once, run anywhere" then Linux would have a bigger, but hardly fighting, chance of unseating desktop Windows.

Point Three

3. Linux, desktop especially but also server, is not a major threat to Microsoft. But it is enough of a threat to make Microsoft notice, and that is usually a good thing. Microsoft will be on the defensive, at least a little, and that gives customers some leverage they don't otherwise enjoy.

Point Four

4. I don't have numbers to support this, but Linux may be a bigger threat to various flavors of UNIX than it is to Microsoft server operating systems.

Point Five

5. There's at least a 50/50 probability that Linux will become Balkanized just as UNIX was. There will be multiple, semi-compatible versions of Unix that seem to be one operating system, right up until you try to install applications. Surprise! Not the Solaris version? Sorry!

Let's actually address his 50/50 chance that Linux will become Balkanized. Linux is Free Software, it is under the GNU Genreal Public License. This license makes it very clear that any modifications to the code must be released if you release the binary form of that code. Linux simply cannot be Balkanized, since any modifications made, must be released as source code. Any incompatibilities can easily and simply be fixed. This is an ancient argument that has been killed more times than Kenny on South Park.

Point Six

6. People talk about how wonderful it is that Linux is free. But over the life of a server, the operating system is such a small part of the cost that it gets lost in the other soft- and hard-dollar expenses. You'd think systems offering the lowest total cost-of-ownership would sell better than they usually do. Apple, for many years, claimed a big TCO lead over Windows. But did it help?

Point Seven

7. Big hardware companies may yet co-opt Linux: Here's an operating system they can load, create add-ons for, and then sell support contracts for. Add some minor barriers to switching to other platforms and operating systems--either Microsoft or another Linux--and you might have something. Isn't this how Sun became King of Unix?

Point Eight

8. Linux is a fine server operating system. Use it with my blessing, but don't let it define you, your IS shop, or your company. And don't select Linux just because you hate Microsoft. That isn't good enough reason to pick an operating system.

Point Nine (Thank God, The End)

9. Linux will be a common operating system in places where we don't see an operating system--like home information and entertainment appliances. Want Linux? Buy a TiVo digital video recorder. Linux makes great sense as an embedded OS, but faces much competition. Still, I am betting most people will have some sort of Linux-powered device in the lives sometime in the next 5 years or so.

So, let's summarize. What Mr. Coursey has given us is 2 and 1/3 reasons that Linux will not be on your desktop. He's given us no evidence, statistics or even logical arguments to back up the first, second and bit of the third point, which applied to the desktop market.

On the other hand, he's given us one point (number 7) that indicates that there is at least one way in which Linux could get some major support for desktop or server market share. He's made some offhand comments on servers and embedded devices, which all fail to make any sort of coherent sense.

Sadly, this is the sort of thing that will be picked up by a middle management type person in IT and digested as cold, hard fact.

Mr. Coursey ends his column by saying:

"Luther and his followers were excommunicated for their beliefs. I don't face anything nearly as drastic as that--but I know there are many in the Linux cult ready to proclaim me a heretic, or worse."